Daily Market Briefings

Alphabet lost roughly $500 billion of market value on Thursday, by the Journal's count, and the AI selloff widened to Amazon and Intel overnight.

The Fed held its target range at 3.75% to 4% in a 10-2 vote, and both dissenting officials wanted a quarter-point increase instead.

The Fed's decision is due at 2:00pm ET with a hold expected, and its own September projections imply about one more quarter-point by year end.

Anthropic filed for an IPO and AI shares rose in the U.S., Europe and Asia, with Seoul up 4.39%. The Fed's meeting opens today, decision due Wednesday.

94 of 100 economists expect the Fed to hold at 3.75% to 4.00% Wednesday. The ten-year Treasury closed Friday at 5.00%, and Lula won Brazil's runoff.

Meta guided to $135-145 billion of 2026 AI spending. The Nasdaq fell 2.6% and the 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.96% on October 22.

Meta posted $64.6 billion of third-quarter revenue and created a non-voting share class to help fund AI. Oil topped $111 and France's 10-year passed 5%.

SpaceX posted its first profit since listing and said merger committees are sitting with Tesla. Housing starts fell 5.2% and long-term yields fell too.

A fourth data-center listing fell as much as 32% in Seoul after three were pulled this month, and Goldman says power is the bottleneck. Brent near $110.

Brent fell 1.8% to $104 after the U.S. waived new Russia sanctions, with diesel at $6.28 a gallon. Plus China grew 4.5% and France's protests hit bonds.

Producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the most since 2022, and Fed Chair Warsh declined to signal October. Plus Jakarta dove 11% on an MSCI warning.

September CPI ran hot at 3.7%, stocks had their worst day since July, and the Treasury curve flattened. Plus the AI selloff hit Asia and two banks split.

ASML raised its forecast and said it cannot fully meet chip demand in 2027 or 2028. Plus Bank of America's $1.2 billion Treasury penalty.

Seoul fell 5.5% as a Broadcom warning and Chinese memory competition hit chip stocks, while the IMF raised 2026 growth on the same AI spending.

Oil fell on a Russian diesel deal and an unconfirmed ceasefire, the six biggest banks open earnings season, and Beijing called in its listed firms.

A report putting OpenAI's revenue $20 billion below a widely shared figure hit the Nasdaq, oil rose 4% on tanker attacks and a hurricane, and PepsiCo rose.

Fed minutes point to one more rate increase as short and long yields split, AI chip buyers seek tens of billions in debt, and diesel supply gets help.

Google contracted 3,590 megawatts from Constellation as the S&P 500 set a record, the U.S. trade deficit hit $105.6 billion and India raised rates.

The Nasdaq closed at a record as the 10-year Treasury yield hit a 24-year high, Paramount's Warner deal closed, and C.H. Robinson agreed to buy RXO.

The euro hit a 17-month low on France's budget deadlock, a weak jobs report cut October Fed-hike odds to 16%, and the G7 tapped its fuel reserves.

Treasury yields hit a 2002 high and then reversed on a Fed speech, mortgage rates posted their biggest weekly jump in four years, and Nike plans to shrink.

Core inflation came in softer than forecast, long-term Treasury and French borrowing costs hit multi-decade highs anyway, and Micron set a record.

A New York Fed official said there is no urgency on rates, short-term Treasury yields fell as long-term yields rose, and China's factories grew again.

Treasury yields set a fresh 19-year high Monday, Australia raised rates a fourth time, and Spanish inflation hit 5%. Wednesday's data is the test.

Trump rejected Iran's truce offer Saturday. Oil rose close to 3% Monday, the Treasury selloff resumed, and Germany's Bund yield hit a 2009 high.

Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year mortgage at 7.03%, its first reading above 7% since early 2025, as Treasury yields reached multi-decade highs.

A hot business survey and a weak $70 billion Treasury auction sent the 10-year yield to 5.11%, and the U.S.-China tariff truce was pushed to January 10.

Diesel set another record while crude fell below $100, and President Trump backed a ban on U.S. diesel exports that analysts warn could backfire.

A semiconductor rally led by AMD's first $1 trillion close carried the Nasdaq to a record, as oil fell and long-term Treasury yields eased.

Crude fell a fourth session on hopes of U.S.-Iran diplomacy, lifting stocks worldwide, as Washington and Beijing prepared for Thursday's summit.

Stocks posted their best day in six weeks and Treasury yields fell back after the Fed's hike, while the Bank of Japan raised rates to a 31-year high.

The Fed raised rates a quarter point to 3.75%-4.00% in a unanimous vote, most officials project one more this year, and oil fell for a second day.

The Fed is expected to raise rates today for the first time since 2023 as the 10-year Treasury yield closes at 5%, oil eases, and AI stocks rebound.

The 10-year Treasury yield topped 5% for the first time since 2007 as the Fed opened a two-day meeting, oil stayed near $108, and AI stocks split.

Markets are positioning for a possible Fed rate hike Wednesday as an AI-slowdown warning rattles chip stocks and oil jumps on a Saudi pipeline attack.

August core inflation ran hotter than expected, pushing odds of a Fed hike next week toward 90%, plus Oracle's $664B AI backlog and diesel's record $6.

Oil near $100 and hot wholesale prices pushed Fed rate-hike odds to about 70% and yields to multiyear highs, plus the ECB's hike to 2.50%.

Brent crude topped $100 for the first time since July as the U.S. and Iran traded strikes near Hormuz, plus Google's $15.1B Finland AI bet.

U.S. stocks fell as markets returned from Labor Day to oil near $100, Canada's retaliatory tariffs taking effect, and a $4B Qualcomm-Amazon AI chip deal.

August payrolls came in at 162,000 against a 53,000 forecast. Treasury yields jumped, stocks fell, and a September Fed rate increase is back in play.

Fed Governor Waller said he could back a September hold and yields eased. Nvidia is paying $12.9B for Hugging Face. Broadcom's record quarter, explained.

Private payrolls rose just 38,000 in August, the weakest since January, even as the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.79%. The Fed's bind, explained.

Nvidia invested $3.5 billion to stay central to the AI buildout, while a Gulf flare-up pushed oil past $92 and lifted government bond yields worldwide.

Traders now see a 60.4% chance the Fed raises rates in September. Oil above $90 pushed mortgage rates to a 14-month high. Here is how those connect.