Bond Yields Went Quiet Before Tuesday's Vote, And Apple Reports Tonight

Brian CurcioPublished November 2, 2026

Treasury yields barely moved in Asian trading on Monday ahead of Tuesday's U.S. midterm elections and a heavy week of economic data. Apple is expected to report after today's close, the first earnings presentation under its new chief executive, John Ternus. Fitch revised its outlook on France to negative, a week after Moody's held off on a downgrade.

Fast Facts

Binance resumed withdrawals after the biggest-ever crypto hack and says it has now replaced roughly 95% of the stolen assets (Read More)
Share buybacks at the big U.S. technology companies fell 83%, by Economic Times' count, as record spending on AI infrastructure pushed their combined outlays past the cash their businesses produced (Read More)
Gold futures, the contracts that fix a price now for delivery later, ticked higher but held below $4,000 a troy ounce after slumping last week (Read More)
Diplomatic efforts to revive negotiations between Washington and Tehran pushed oil prices lower (Read More)
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned that inflation remains above the Fed's target and said the central bank will "deliver price stability" (Read More)
Ceva said it kept the top spot in wireless interface chip designs, holding about 68% of that market in IPnest's September 2026 industry report (Read More)

Global News

The Bank of England is expected to join other central banks in raising its key interest rate on Thursday, to contain a pickup in inflation arriving just before an intense round of wage negotiations (Read More)
Australia's central bank ends a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday against a deepening housing slump and inflation that shows few signs of easing (Read More)
Factory activity across Asia kept expanding in October on demand tied to AI, though growth slowed in the region's major chip exporters (Read More)
Metlen Energy & Metals signed a binding five-year deal to buy liquefied natural gas from Shell (Read More)

Stocks Go Into Tuesday's Midterms Watching The Bond Market

Americans vote in midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, and the corner of the market that usually twitches first went in quiet. Treasury yields, the annual rate the U.S. government pays to borrow, were little changed in Asian trading on Monday ahead of the vote. For a baseline, the prior session: on Friday, October 30, the Treasury Department's yield curve, which is its daily list of what the government pays to borrow over different lengths of time, showed the 2-year note at 4.56% and the 10-year at 4.94%.

The October 30 moves were small: the 5-year and 7-year yields each fell 7 hundredths of a percentage point, what traders call 7 basis points, while the 2-year fell 5 and the 10-year fell 4. The gap between the 2-year and the 10-year, the extra investors demand for lending to the government for a decade rather than two years, sat at 38 basis points. That is not the shape of a bond market leaning on one result.

So why do stock investors care what yields do? A share price is a judgement about profits that have not happened yet, and a government bond yield is the safe return those future profits get compared against. Raise that comparison rate and a dollar of profit arriving in 2031 is worth less to own today. Call it the discount rate at work: a company whose earnings are mostly years out falls further when yields rise than one collecting cash now. The same gravity works in the corporate bond market, where companies borrow for themselves, and that market has been strained for months; tech stocks caught its cold in late October. Inflation is a big reason lenders want close to 5% to lend to the government for a decade. Consumer prices rose 0.6% in September 2026, with unemployment at 4.2% that month.

The counter-argument is that the vote matters less to prices than it seems. Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's chief stock-market strategist, called the midterms a classic "clearing event" whose outcome at this point does not really matter. His view, not ours. Markets have a long record to price against: only twice in the past 20 midterms since 1946 has the president's party gained House seats, according to Al Jazeera. First results arrive once polls close Tuesday night, but who controls Congress might not be known for days or even weeks. A count that takes that long is not a broken system; it is counting. The market will spend that stretch pricing other things anyway: October jobs data and major earnings arrive on schedule no matter who wins.

Sources: WSJ · MarketWatch on the bond market · MarketWatch on Morgan Stanley's strategist · Al Jazeera · U.S. Treasury · BLS

Apple Reports On A Monday Night, And Memory Chip Costs Are The Detail To Watch

Apple is expected to report after today's close, a rare Monday slot for the company and John Ternus's first earnings presentation as chief executive. Every figure below is an expectation; the results land hours after this post. Analysts' average estimate, what the market calls consensus, is $1.98 in earnings per share against $1.85 in the same quarter a year ago. Earnings per share is profit divided by the number of shares a company has issued. The period is Apple's fiscal fourth quarter, which is the final stretch of a business year that does not match the calendar. The test for Ternus is two things at once: inflated memory prices and a tougher backdrop for consumer spending. Apple's market capitalization, meaning the combined value of all its shares, was roughly $5.09 trillion on Monday morning, making it the largest of the 154 companies reporting today.

What shifts a price is not the profit number by itself but the gap between that number and what investors had already assumed, plus whatever the company says about the quarter ahead. That forward statement is called guidance, and it can matter more than the quarter just finished. Memory chips are something Apple buys, not something it makes, so when memory prices rise the cost of building each device rises too. The company then has a choice: absorb the increase, which squeezes the profit left on every sale, or pass it to buyers, which tests demand at a moment when households are already more careful.

That squeeze is why the specific items on the watch list are early iPhone 18 demand, Services growth and holiday-quarter guidance rather than the headline profit. Each one answers part of the same question: will people still upgrade a phone that costs more to build, and can steadier Services revenue cushion a slower hardware quarter. Palantir is expected to report the same afternoon, with a consensus of $0.33 per share against $0.18 a year ago and a market value of $471.8 billion, under a tenth of Apple's size.

Sources: MarketWatch · Economic Times

Fitch Turns Negative On France, And Points At The 2027 Election

Fitch revised its outlook on France to negative on Monday. Our briefing of October 26 covered Moody's sparing France a downgrade, so the new part today is that a different agency has now signalled concern. The stated reason is specific: doubts about France's ability to sustainably restore its public finances after the 2027 presidential election. An outlook change is not a rating cut, and no grade changed on Monday. European stocks struggled for direction after the warning, mostly lower at the open, with healthcare shares sliding. The euro rose.

A credit rating is an agency's opinion of how likely a borrower is to pay back what it borrows, and governments get judged on it much as people get credit scores. An outlook is a separate thing: the rating is the grade, and the outlook is the agency saying which way it is leaning next. Here is why that reaches past bond desks. A government judged a slightly riskier borrower generally has to offer lenders a higher interest rate, and a government's interest bill is paid out of tax revenue, which is money not spent on something else. That chain is how an opinion becomes a line in a budget. Fitch pointed past the 2027 election, not at this year's budget. An agency looking past an election is making a judgement about politics as much as arithmetic.

Sources: Nasdaq.com · WSJ on the euro · WSJ on the European open · our briefing of October 26

What To Watch

Reporting today:

Apple (AAPL) is expected after the close, with analysts' average estimate at $1.98 in earnings per share against $1.85 a year ago, and Palantir (PLTR) the same afternoon at $0.33 against $0.18. Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) is also expected after the close at $4.36, with Marriott (MAR) and Estee Lauder (EL) before the opening bell. 154 companies are scheduled in all.

Tuesday:

U.S. midterm elections. Initial results begin arriving after the first polls close, and control of Congress might not be settled for days or even weeks.
A heavier slate of 282 companies, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) expected after the close at $1.68 against $0.97, Arista Networks (ANET) at $0.99 and Booking Holdings (BKNG) at $4.48. Shopify (SHOP) is expected before the open at $0.33, and Pfizer (PFE) at $0.72 against $0.87 a year ago, one of the few large companies expected to earn less than it did last year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's two-day policy meeting is expected to end.

Later this week:

Wednesday carries 480 scheduled reporters, including Qualcomm (QCOM) and Arm Holdings (ARM) after the close and McDonald's (MCD) and Uber (UBER) before the open. Thursday is heavier still at 618.
The Bank of England is expected to raise its key rate on Thursday, and Lumentum and Airbnb are expected to report after the close that day.
October jobs data is expected this week.
The Federal Open Market Committee next meets December 8-9.
An expectation is not a decision, and every earnings figure above is an estimate rather than a result.

The Classroom Takeaway

Treasury yields held still ahead of Tuesday's vote, and that steadiness is its own kind of news: the ten-year stood at 4.94% on October 30, with the gap between the two-year and the ten-year at 38 hundredths of a percentage point. Students can sit in the other chair and set the rate themselves in Run the Fed.